Escalating War of Words Between Ethiopia and Eritrea Triggers Fears of Military Confrontation

Increasing worries are present regarding the potential of armed conflict between East African neighbors, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in last year that his government's access to the sea was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a long sea border, formally separated from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it without sea access.

Subsequently, a border war erupted in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Latest Comments from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and army chief the army commander have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrea's maritime facility of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and hinted at the intention to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "addressed tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

In the face of continuous threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to short statements on online platforms from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea calling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a approach of claiming back former lands.

Eritrean authorities alerted on 16 September that efforts to justify "obvious provocation" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Border

So far, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, state television has shown training completions of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The director of staff section of the armed forces, General Hachalu, recently said in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Historical Roots of the Tension

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British military before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

But in the early 1960s the ruler ended this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long internal conflict ensued, concluding with military reversal in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Though this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries stayed at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the hostilities was over – a action that gained the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 internal conflict in Tigray.

But relations have later worsened once more.